As traders eagerly await Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, gold and silver prices remain firmly positioned within crucial ranges. The outcome of Powell’s remarks, alongside the ongoing influence of political pressures and US Dollar (USD) fluctuations, is set to determine the next major price movement for both precious metals.
Gold Price Analysis: Consolidation Ahead of Key Fed Remarks
Gold prices are consolidating at a critical support level, awaiting clarity from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address. If Powell signals a rate cut in September or leans dovish, gold could benefit from lower opportunity costs, leading to renewed buying pressure. On the other hand, a more hawkish or neutral stance would dampen gold’s bullish prospects.
Political Pressure on the Fed Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
Adding to gold’s appeal is the political pressure on the Fed, primarily from President Trump’s repeated attacks on Fed officials, particularly Chair Jerome Powell. These political tensions weaken confidence in the Fed’s independence, which is likely to bolster gold’s safe-haven demand. Traders are keenly aware of the potential policy risks, which could fuel demand for gold in the short term.
Gold Technical Breakdown:
- XAU/USD Daily Chart:
Gold remains within an ascending triangle pattern, having found support near the $3,315 level. Despite a brief rebound, the price remains capped below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Traders will look for a breakout either above $3,350 to target $3,450 or a dip below $3,310, which could extend the decline to $3,250. As long as gold stays below $3,500, price volatility is expected. - XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart:
On the 4-hour chart, the range continues between $3,250 and $3,500. A break below $3,250 could signal further downside, while a break above $3,500 may pave the way for a push towards $4,000.
Silver Price Outlook: Bullish Signals and Key Support at 50-Day SMA
Silver continues to show bullish potential, with the 50-day SMA providing crucial support. A recent bullish hammer formation on the daily chart indicates that silver may continue to trend higher, supported by the ongoing rebound from the RSI midline. A breakout above the $35 level strengthens silver’s positive outlook, further supported by the Adam and Eve chart pattern.
- XAG/USD Daily Chart:
Silver’s support at the 50-day SMA remains intact, signaling potential for further upward momentum. The RSI’s rebound adds to the positive outlook, with further upside expected if silver breaches the $38.60 level. - XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart:
Silver shows bullish price action, with prices pushing toward the $38.60 level. A move above this level would confirm short-term strength, while a pullback below $36.90 could see silver testing the $35 support region. Overall, the outlook for silver remains positive, with potential for further gains.
US Dollar Index: Bearish Bias Persists Amid Powell’s Remarks
The US Dollar Index has rebounded from long-term support but faces significant resistance at the 100.50 level. A break above this key resistance could push the USD higher, but if it remains below 100.50, further downside could be expected.
- USD Daily Chart:
Despite the recent rebound, the US Dollar index faces resistance at 100.50. A drop below the 96 level would signal further weakness. - USD 4-Hour Chart:
The 4-hour chart shows a mild rebound from support at 98.60, with the next resistance at 99.20. A break above this level could lift the dollar toward 100.50. However, as long as the index stays below 100.50, a bearish bias remains.
Conclusion: What’s Next for Gold and Silver?
The outlook for gold and silver is largely shaped by the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and the Fed’s stance on rate cuts. Gold’s short-term momentum depends on Powell’s speech, with a dovish tone likely to spark further buying. Silver remains buoyed by supportive technical patterns, with $35 acting as a key support. Meanwhile, the USD’s path will play a crucial role in determining the direction of both precious metals in the coming days. As the market waits for these pivotal events, volatility in the gold and silver markets is expected to remain elevated.
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