Gold holds above key support while silver stays range-bound as markets await critical US data and Fed guidance.
Market Overview
Gold prices rebounded in Asian trading on Friday after touching a two-week low in the previous session. The recovery was supported by a softer US dollar and strong expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. According to CME FedWatch data, traders are pricing in a 90% chance of a September cut, with two reductions anticipated before year-end.
This buying interest came despite hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index data, which rose from 2.4% to 3.3% year-on-year in July — the fastest pace since 2022. While inflation data initially boosted the US dollar and pressured gold, the greenback’s momentum quickly faded, allowing gold to regain ground.
However, overall market sentiment remains in “risk-on” mode, supported by progress in global trade talks and strong equity performance, which is limiting safe-haven demand.
Silver Price Action
Silver also saw modest gains on Friday, benefiting from the weaker dollar and Fed policy outlook. However, its rally was capped as improving investor sentiment encouraged flows into risk-sensitive assets instead of safe havens.
Silver’s performance remains tied to both its precious metal status and its role in industrial demand. Broader manufacturing trends will be key in shaping its direction in the weeks ahead.
Upcoming Market Drivers
Traders now focus on US economic data releases, including Retail Sales, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. These will be closely watched for clues on the pace and extent of Fed policy easing.
While both gold and silver have rebounded from recent lows, the lack of strong follow-through buying means upside momentum could remain limited until data and central bank commentary provide clearer direction.
Technical Outlook – Gold
Gold is holding above the $3,332 trendline support, with the RSI near neutral at 43, showing a balance between buyers and sellers. Key resistance lies between $3,352–$3,356 (50- and 100-EMA).
- Bullish Breakout Target: $3,375 and $3,380 if buyers clear EMA resistance.
- Support Levels: $3,332 immediate, followed by $3,312 and $3,290 on a breakdown.
Near-term price action is likely to remain within a consolidation range before a decisive breakout.
Technical Outlook – Silver
Silver is trading near $38.02, just above trendline support from late July. Price is caught between the 100-EMA ($38.03) and 50-EMA ($38.12), signaling consolidation.
- Upside Target: Break above $38.30 could test $38.73 and $39.14.
- Support Levels: $37.56 key support, with deeper declines possible toward $37.17 and $36.78 if broken.
Until a decisive move occurs, range-bound trading is expected.
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